Political progress remains the key in ensuring long-term stability in the sub region and Ethiopia shall continue its effort in fostering peace process and fighting insurgency with or without the support of the international community.
Conflict in its very nature disrupts peace and tranquility of a given nation and shake its socio economic and political makeup. Besides, in this overly intertwined world, the spillover effect counts a lot as success of a given state is directly related to peace, amity and stability in its neighbors.
There
were and are zealous critics that always tend to consider Ethiopia’s
diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries either as farcical or
having an interventionist mentality. Hence, it is imperative to
enunciate scenarios (if any) that warrants Ethiopia’s engagement with
peacemaking initiatives in neighboring countries and what returns it may
accrue by doing so.
For a
nation to do well, government machineries and resilient institutions
should be put in place. Here, it is pertinent to make a historical
comparison on the situation of Ethiopia and Somalia in the early 1990’s.
During those days, both states were ruled by military junta, engaged in
lingering wars and there were no space for the civilians to lead
peaceful life.
Ethiopia
by that time was hell to dwell as the Derg regime suppressed all sorts
of dissent by every means. For this very reason, ethnic-based armed
groups proliferated against the regime and Ethiopia was believed to have
been at the brink of disintegration.
When
we see the case of Somalia, the Siad Barre regime was already fractured
as it could not provide the requisite peace, stability and basic
necessities for its citizens. Besides, it could not relinquish the
totally hallucinated intention of building greater Somalia.
Many
speculated that these two states are nearly on the same page with
regard to their immediate upcoming fate i.e. dissolution. Nonetheless,
after the demise of the stratocracy, what miracle on earth happened for
Ethiopia to emerge as a strong, thriving nation whereas Somalia; as a
struggling and failed state?
The
bottom line is that, Ethiopia healing from those scars hugely engaged
itself in building strong institutions which in turn helped in
consolidating power. The role of individuals and shady elite interests
were curbed and everyday life channeled through predetermined rules and
procedures. Accountability established in all the system to rectify
misdeeds. Yet in Somalia, instead of establishing effective and
effectual institutions, the key players in every aspect of life became
powerful individuals and clan chiefs which personified the state system
according to their cult of personality and demand. Far-flung from
building institutions, one clan step over the other in search of
dominance, serving peoples interest left astray and they could not even
manage the differences they have let alone to introduce a full-fledged
state. This has paved the way for corruption, lack of good governance
and anarchy by which its impact brought far reaching and transboundary
setbacks.
A quintessential
manifestation for transboundary chaos in the sub region is Somalia. It
has not had an effective central government since 1991 creating a
fertile ground for multi clan-based militant groups. In fact, Ethiopia
beginning from the early 1990s was a victim of terrorist attacks which
had been mounted from groups like Al-Ithad Al Islamia: a brutal breed
from neighboring Somalia. Amongst the recent phenomenon, we had also
witnessed the rhetoric of Jihad pronouncement against Ethiopia by the
Islamic Courts Union principally led by Hassan Dahir Aweys. However, why
does a terrorist act persist in countries like Kenya and Uganda whereas
its incidence dramatically declined upon Ethiopia? Is it because the
terrorist groups have no more interest in tarnishing Ethiopia’s image?
There
were countless plots foiled by joint collaboration of the peace loving
people and security task force. By appraising its vulnerability,
Ethiopia learnt a lot on how to tackle such malevolent acts. Thus,
mobilized huge resources by introducing citizen centered protection
mechanisms and massively invested in its diplomatic engagements so that
neighboring instabilities get an attention from the international
community. For one’s surprise, Ethiopia; after effectively tackling
those problems goes to the extent of being the major contributor of
peace keeping force in the world.
The
other destabilizing element is the regional proxy of Al-Qaeda i.e.
Al-Shabaab. It used to be locally focused even if some of their recruits
were from countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda by which special
training is offered to them about non-conventional warfare and
insurgency. The more recruits from those mentioned countries, the
multifarious the internal stability of these countries fall at stake
which in turn bring about regional disruption. Perceptive of practical
facts, militant groups even go to the extent of infiltrating their spies
and other missionaries to such camps so that they can wage an
insurgency from within. For instance one can take the case of Kenyan
refugee camps where lots of Al-Shabaab insurgents conscript members and
destabilize the state. Such instances will leave the countries future
remain uncertain. The attack in Garissa could be cited as potent
evidence. Thus, it is important to calculate the level of imminent
threat posed against Ethiopia.
The
conflict both in Somalia and South Sudan brought about large scale
humanitarian chaos leaving millions into catastrophic starvation and
subsequent increment in death toll. This would require the international
community and development partners to divert large sum of wealth (which
could have been destined for development causes) into humanitarian
assistance. In addition, migration and internally displaced people
numerically over whelm and it would have an impact on neighboring
countries coffer as they are expected by international Law and custom to
provide shelter.
Conflict
prone regions being safe haven for breeding terrorism; bring about
utter complications due to their susceptibility for acts of terrorism,
organized crime and piracy. These acts may happen in Somalia but its
drastic effect would bear cumbersome responsibility to other countries
like Ethiopia and its citizens at large. For the worse, these illegally
financed groups use the money in order to fund acts of terrorism in the
region bringing further vicious circle of glitches.
The
success of Ethiopia is directly correlated to peace and stability in its
neighboring states. Its engagement in bringing law and order in those
countries is driven by the desire and only the desire to bring about
peace, stability and development to the conflict torn and prone sub
region: not the mediocre thinking of mere ‘expansionism’ as some
declare. Otherwise, the logic of the sinking ship and its crew will hold
true to the Somalia and South Sudan people and the sub region at large.
Ethiopia;
as written in black and white under the Foreign and National Security
Policy document; is fully determined for good neighborliness and
friendship among states. It reiterates that sustenance of its growth and
development cannot be secured if neighboring countries are at
persistent violence and instability. Hence, to avoid the spillover
effect, it is doing its best to bring peace and stability in the sub
region and its outcome can be witnessed from fostering peacemaking
causes and the role it plays in the fight against international
terrorism. Hereunder discussed could be cited as an example.
First,
after a protracted mediation process mainly hosted and brokered by
Ethiopia, a federal government was established in Somalia even if it is
not to its full stature. Apart from the victory they got in bringing
their own constitution, they have now an assembly where they can speak
their mind and deliberate on issues of concern. This is a tremendous
outcome which Ethiopia gets full credit.
Second,
more or less Ethiopia played the midwifery role when South Sudan came
into existence. That event ceased decade’s long war between the north
and south sparing civilians from further catastrophe. Besides, the
tension which grew between South Sudan with the republic of Sudan in the
disputed Abiye region came into resolute by deploying Ethiopian peace
keeping forces. As there was severe mistrust between the two, had there
been no such deployment, the persecution could have been enormous.
Third,
the latest rift in South Sudan between government and opposition
political elites also brought grave humanitarian loss and sufferings.
Ethiopia as a member of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development
(IGAD) intensively engaged itself in hosting and mediating peace
processes by bringing warring groups together to find a lasting solution
even if it is found to be rough.
In a
nutshell, the reasons given above abound, political progress remains
the key in ensuring long-term stability in the sub region especially in
Somalia and South Sudan. Ethiopia shall avow itself of continuing its
effort in fostering peace process and fighting insurgency with or
without the support of the international community at large, as it is
incumbent to do so as internal security is the essential prerequisite
for further progress in all other endeavors.
Originally Posted on The Reporter English Version
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