Walking the Talk

The Quest for UNSC Reform

The US Counterterrorism Dictum: “In Peace We Fail; In War We Prevail”

The foremost lesson other countries could take from the Ethiopian counter-terrorism efforts is that it recognizes and reiterates the need for having political dialogues among different parties and the people at large.

Encompassing the philosophical analogy of Guerrilla Diplomacy as introduced by Daryl Copeland, i.e. engaging the very people that you claim to signify in your affairs, will lead you to success in counter-terrorism moves. Otherwise, the mere fact that you are an authority with the capability to deploy countless military forces with high tech weapons, well trained and equipped service men or the upsurge of logistics and financial support will not disentangle the problem, but it may bring temporary relief similar to what painkillers do.

In a book titled ‘Formulating Strategy’, it is propounded that “the future is seen as history extrapolated forward plus another ten percent”. What had been done commendably or what had been tried but proved unproductive, becomes the history of that specific establishment whether we liked it or not. By the same token, former US military and political interventions which were ultimately calculated in the sole interest of the US but covering multifaceted aspects of many countries is what the world was forced to face yesterday and, this is the exact situation the world is facing currently.

Before delving into the cream of counter-terrorism tussles, it is imperative to recall the historical blueprint the US laid to a group by then so-called the Afghan Mujahideen. In fact, the United States was fighting to liberate Central Europe, to end the Cold War and honk the horn echoing the fall of the Soviet Union that gave rise to a Unipolar Global Political Order (UGPO). However, it was a decisive moment in the history of terrorism as many of the future cadets were given a firsthand field experience as to how they must conduct military expeditions for good or evil.  While Zbigniew Brzezinski – former National Security Adviser to the President of the United States – flew to Pakistan in late 1970’s in order to arm the Mujahedeen against the Soviets, urged Afghan Jihad fighters to redouble their efforts by saying

“…we know with a deep belief in God and your confidence; the struggle will succeed. That land over there is yours, you will go back to it one day because your fight will prevail and you will have your homes, your Mosques back again. Because your cause is right and God is on your side…”

It does not require to have faith in karma in order to synthesize facts and comprehend the way we were, the way the world is and what it will become. The mighty nation through its foreign policy played an indispensable role in determining the state of global affairs. It is not an overstatement that the United States is among the major culprits and is to blame for its share in bringing this chaos to our everyday lives. Even worse, they are diminishing the level of success the global community should have secured in the fight against terrorism for their sheer political supremacy; and of course through its extended arm in the United Nations Security Council.

The global community is left as a ‘scapegoat’. For instance, we may take a glance at the overall targets of the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant (ISIL) controlled areas in Syria which had been hit by the coalition forces in its lengthy strikes versus the short-lived but efficacious strikes coming from Russia. Accordingly, would it not be logical to question whether the commitments of the global superpower, the United States, and its allies in fighting against the international terrorist network is a phony one or not?!
The 9/11 incident shocked the world which in turn brought about the declaration of war on terrorism by the then US president George W. Bush. That pronouncement was a whirling point in history because it was made under a fiercely categorical semantics. Bush stated, “either you are with us or you are with the terrorists”. In fear of seclusion and/or even for the largesse pecuniary benefits it brings to their coffer from the global superpower, countless countries joined the anti-terrorism coalition cause (including Pakistan who finally attested to have given shelter for Osama Bin Laden). The practical failures of counter terrorism efforts by the United States and typically its allies in the west will be dealt hereunder.

First of all, let us witness the widespread commotion posed upon Iraq. Even if we cannot assert that the Iraqis were living in harmony with each other, at least they were not chaotic as they are today and fairly there was a serene situation in their homeland. As soon as US forces intruded to depose the Saddam regime (even if it was made under a politically stirred erroneous intelligence), the hostility between Shia and Sunni Muslims in Iraq became bitter and each stood against the very survival of the other. Sectarian politics became the order of the day not only in the plebeian's mind; but also in those folks on the high echelons of political power. Consequently, Iraq became a breeding ground for innumerable and Notorious terrorists like Abu Mosab Al Zarqawi and Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. Hence, carrying out sectarian politics of divide and rule has no place in fighting counter-terrorism and could be deliberated as one failure for the existing counter-terrorism efforts.

Second, looking at the mess in Libya, the intervention of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led by the US, destabilized another relatively stable country. African leaders came up with a road-map to solve the crisis but the West rejected the African Union Commission’s proposal (rather we could say begging) and persistently bombed Libya. The AU’s road-map was undermined by the West who still bark at Libya to no avail.

The third failure is mere logistics supply and training offered to a faction one is not even sure of what their real intents are. Currently, the prevailing case in Syria is this as follows. The US decided to arm and train militias from the Free Syrian Army and many other groups who were believed to be moderates. The moment these trainees return to their homeland, they either handover their weapons in lieu for a safe passage in the Islamic State or Nusra Front controlled areas or even worse, they join the caliphate with their full military gear. Lately, General Lloyd Austin, who heads the United State’s Central Command (CENTCOM), admitted to Congress that only four or five of the US-backed rebels were still fighting in Syria, prompting Republican senators to call the training programme a “joke” and “total failure”, as the BBC recounted.

Fourth, once upon a time, the job description of a soldier was “shoot and kill”; but not in our day. The felons live amongst the people and if you do not give the public a part to play, they will give shield for the terrorists. It is as simple as that. The public knows the ins and outs and the dens of the terrorists. However, without lending them your ear, how can one expect to win such a war while the stakeholder is being left behind? This kind of policy only works in Hollywood movies. In fact, it proved to be futile in the battlegrounds such as Afghanistan.

Thus, real participation from the public at hand is a necessity. Otherwise history has taught us that the most sophisticated army in the world – the US Army – was  embarrassed by group of ‘hooligans from the streets of Mogadishu’ with their AK-47s.

Fifth, roughly nations believe that their reconnaissance planes, unmanned drones and their highly-trained navy seals could bring a radical change to the facts on the ground. Exhausting these technologies may minimize the casualties that could befall soldiers and lessen the budgetary cost the military incurs. However, the intelligence you gather through the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV’s) which one acclaims is precise, still cost the lives of innocent civilians as a collateral damage. Would it be logical to think that it is OK to bomb schools, wedding ceremonies and funeral gatherings and then expect the society you are fighting for gives you shelter and due recognition? The answer is an outright “NO”. Exaggerated reliance on technologically advanced military devices will not bear fruit unless they are backed by the requisite human element. This could even get shoddier when looking at the recent grave and debauched actions of the United States Air Force at Kunduz Hospital, Afghanistan.

As per our maiden knowledge of the International Humanitarian Law, institutions such as hospitals are protected by law and attack against those facilities will amount to be a clear violation of the International Humanitarian Law and practice. But what had we observed?! Only one response from the US military spokesperson who stated that the air assault was demanded by the Afghan forces. It is imperative not to shy away the fact that United States shall stand to be corrected in its shortsighted counter-terrorism strategies and engagements.

In his recent piece on Aljazeera, Mehari Tadelle (PhD) puts it this way:

“For many experts closely following events in the Horn of Africa and the fight against terrorism, Ethiopia stands out as having been exceptionally successful.”

Why is that so?! Is it because members of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) are well trained and properly outfitted when compared to their US counterparts?

In his press statement held at the Ethiopian National Palace, while reckoning the victory that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces notched on Al-Shabaab, President Barack Obama said that Ethiopian soldiers are tough soldiers there is no need to have US Marines on the ground. But still, he missed the key theme. It can be recalled that a while back Al-Shabaab and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) controlled large parts of Somalia and declared Sharia Law contrary to the interests of many.  Subsequently, Ethiopia and its regional allies managed to liberate large swathes of Al-Shabaab occupied territories.

“While traditional anti-insurgency strategies focus on controlling territories and populations, the Ethiopian Doctrine focuses on public deliberations, training, arming, and establishing administrative units in liberated areas to ensure their own peace and security,” Mehari wrote.

The foremost lesson other countries could take from the Ethiopian counter-terrorism efforts is that it recognizes and reiterates the need for having political dialogues among different parties and the people at large. Unless you create an enabling environment for mutual understanding, the military could provide support but could not decipher the problem and bring lasting solution.

As a last remark, the motto for an effective counter-terrorism strategy shall be, ‘Give the local community you are operating in an opportunity and space so that your strategies could effectively be implemented’. Agonizing and aggrandizing the problem without the readiness to organize a solution is a futile undertaking.

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Originally posted on The Reporter English Edition

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የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲው የአገር ውስጥ ገጽታ ሲፈተሽ

በ2007 ዓ.ም. ወደ ግብጽ የተጓዘው የኢትዮጵያ የሕዝባዊ ዲፕሎማሲ ልኡካን ቡድን

የሃያ አንደኛው መቶ ክፍለ ዘመን ዲፕሎማሲ በቀደመው ጊዜ የመንግሥታት የሥራ ድርሻ ብቻ ተደርጎ የሚቆጠረውን ዕይታ ሙሉ ለሙሉ በሚባል ሁኔታ ቀይሮታል።

በዚህ ወቅት የሲቪክ ማኅበራት፣ ስመጥር ግለሰቦች (Celebrities) ምሁራንና ሌሎችም ተደማጭነት ያላቸው አካላት ተሳታፊ ሆነዋል። አገሮች የራሳቸውን ተፈላጊነት ሊያሳድጉ በሚችሉ እንቅስቃሴዎች ከምንጊዜውም በላይ ተጠምደው ይገኛሉ፡፡ ይሁን እንጂ አብዛኛዎቹ ጥረቶች በውጭው ዓለም የሚገኘውን ኅብረተሰብ በባህል ትርዒቶች፣ በባለሙያ ልውውጥና በምሥልና በድምፅ መረብ መድረስ ላይ ብቻ ያተኮሩ ሆነው እናገኛቸዋለን።

የማይናቅ ቁጥር ያለው የኅብረተሰብ ክፍል የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ሲባል በተለምዶ ቀድሞ በአዕምሮው የሚያቃጭለው በውጭው ዓለም ከሚኖሩ የሕዝብ፣ የሙያ ማኅበራት እንዲሁም ተፅዕኖ ፈጣሪ ግለሰቦች ጋር የሚደረግ ግንኙነት አድርጎ የመውሰድ ዝንባሌ ይስተዋላል። ነገር ግን የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ በአገር ውስጥ ከሚገኙ የተለያዩ አካላት ጋር በሚደረጉ ግንኙነቶችም ሊገለጽ እንደሚችል የተዘነጋ ይመስላል። በዚህ ጽሑፍ የኢትዮጵያ የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ አገራዊ ገጽታ (Domestic Dimension of the Ethiopian Public Diplomacy) ትኩረት ተሰጥቶ ይዳሰሳል። በተጨማሪም በዘርፉ ቢካተቱ የተሻለ እምርታን ያመጣሉ ተብለው የሚታሰቡ ምክረ ሐሳቦችን ለመጠቆም ይሞክራል።

1. የዓለም ነባራዊ ሁኔታና የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ተግዳሮቶች

በአሁኑ ጊዜ የዓለም ማኅበረሰብ መስተጋብር ከምንጊዜውም በላይ ትስስር ውስጥ መሆኑ ይታወቃል። በዚህ ለውጥ ከሚገለጹ ፈርጀ ብዙ ምክንያቶች መካከል በመገናኛና መረጃ መስክ የቴክኖሎጂ መራቀቅ፣ ከዕለት ተዕለት እያደገ የመጣው ገደብ የለሽ የሰዎች ዝውውር፣ የነፃ ገበያ የኢኮኖሚ ሥርዓት መናኘት፣ ድንበር ተሻጋሪ ወንጀሎችና የፀጥታ ሥጋቶች ከብዙ በጥቂቱ ይገኙበታል። እዚህ ላይ የተጠቀሱት ዓበይት ምክንያቶች በመንግሥት የሚከናወን የዲፕሎማሲ ሥራን ለኅብረተሰቡ ይበልጥ ግልጽ፣ በትብብር ላይ የተመሠረተና ቴክኖሎጂን ማዕከል ያደረገ እንዲሆን አስገድዷል።

ከላይ በተጠቀሱት መሠረታዊ ለውጦች ምክንያት በውጭ አገር ለሚደረግ የላቀ የገጽታ ግንባታ ስኬት በአገር ውስጥ የሚደረጉ የሕዝብ ግንኙነት ሥራዎች አስፈላጊነት መታመን ለሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ የአገር ውስጥ ገጽታ ኑባሬ መሠረታዊ መነሾ ሲሆን፣ ይህም በዓለም ላይ የሚገኙ የውጭ ጉዳይና የዓለም አቀፍ ትብብር ሚኒስቴር መሥሪያ ቤቶች በዘርፉ የአገር ውስጥ ድጋፍና ማስተባበር ሒደት ከሥረ መሠረቱ እንዲዳብር የሚያስችሉ ሥራዎች ላይ መዋዕለ ንዋያቸውን እንዲያፈሱ አስገድዷል። በዚህ መስክ በሚደረጉ እንቅስቃሴዎች የአገር ውስጥ ተደራሽነት እንዲሰፋ የሚደረገው ተግባር የላቀ የሰው ሀብት ሥምሪት መጠየቁ፣ በቂ መዋዕለ ንዋይ፣ የተጠናከረና የተደራጀ መረጃና ግንኙነት ቴክኖሎጂ አጠቃቀም የሚያስፈልጋቸው መሆኑ የአገሮቹ የውጭ ጉዳይ መሥሪያ ቤቶች ከገጠሟቸው ተግዳሮቶች መካከል ይጠቀሳሉ።

ኢትዮጵያ በዚህ ረገድ በአገር ውስጥ የምታካሂዳቸው የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ተግባራት በምን ደረጃ ይገኛሉ? የሚለውን ጥያቄ ለመመለስ እንሞክራለን።

2.በፖሊሲ ውይይት መስክ

መንግሥት የአገሪቱን ፍላጎቶች ለሟሟላት በሚያስፈልጉ አጠቃላይ የፖሊሲ ማዕቀፎች በመመራት፣ የወቅቱ ነባራዊ ሁኔታዎች ላይ ተመሥርቶ ፕሮግራሞችን መቅረፅ ቁልፍ ተግባሩ ነው። በተለይ የኅብረተሰቡን የልብ ትርታ የሚያዳምጡ መንግሥታት ለሚነድፏቸው ፈርጀ ብዙ ፖሊሲዎችና ፕሮግራሞች ስኬት፣ የኅብረተሰቡን ዕይታ ለማካተት የሚያደርጉት ጥረት የማይተካ ሚና ይጫወታል። ከዲፕሎማሲው ጋር በተገናኘ ለዲፕሎማሲ ሥራው መሠረታዊ ግብዓት ሆኖ የሚያገለግለውን የውጭ ጉዳይና አገራዊ ደኅንነት የፖሊሲና ስትራቴጂ ሰነድ በ1995 ዓ.ም ከመፅደቁ በፊት የሰነዱ ረቂቅ ለሕዝብ፣ ለሙያ ማኅበራትና ለሌሎች አደረጃጀቶች ለውይይት ቀርቦ በፖሊሲው ላይ በኅብረተሰቡ በኩል በጎ ጎኖቹ ጎልተው እንዲወጡ፣ አሉታዊ ጎኖችም ካሉት ኅብረተሰቡ ችግሮቹን ነቅሶ እንዲያወጣ መድረኮችን በማዘጋጀት፣ ኅብረተሰቡ የአገራችን የውጭ ጉዳይና አገራዊ ደኅንነት ፖሊሲና ስትራቴጂ ገና ከመሠረቱ ቅርፅ በመስጠት ረገድ የራሱን ሚና እንዲጫወት ሁኔታዎች ተመቻችተዋል። 

በመሆኑም በዘመናዊው የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ጽንሰ ሐሳብ መሠረት የአገር ውስጡን ሕዝብ ተኮር የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ዕይታ ገና ፖሊሲው ሲረቀቅ ጀምሮ በአገራችን በሥራ ላይ ውሏል። እዚህ ላይ ምናልባት የፖሊሲ ሰነድ በሥልጣን ላይ ያለን የፖለቲካ ድርጅት አቋም የሚያመላክት በመሆኑ አጠቃላይ የሕዝቡን ዕይታ ሊወክለው አይችልም የሚል ክርክር ቢነሳ እንኳን፣ እንደ ኢትዮጵያ ባለ በዴሞክራሲውም ሆነ በኢኮኖሚው ታዳጊ አገር ውስጥ የዴሞክራሲ ባህልን ለመገንባት በሚደረገው ጥረት ላይ የሕዝብ ተሳትፎን መፍቀድ ሊጫወት የሚችለው ሚና የጎላ ነው። ከላይ የተነሳው የፖሊሲ ሰነድ የአንድ ፓርቲ ልሳን ይሆናል የሚለው ሥጋት ተገቢ ሊሆን ከሚችልባቸው አጋጣሚዎች አገርን ለመታደግና ብሔራዊ መግባባትን ለመፍጠር፣ ቀጣይነት ያለው በፖሊሲ ላይ የሚደረጉ አገር አቀፍ ምክክሮች አገሪቱ ሊገጥሟት ከሚችሉ ችግሮች መታደግም ብቻ ሳይሆን፣ ሐሳብን በነፃነት የመግለጽ ሕገ መንግሥታዊ መብትን በማስከበር፣ ኅብረተሰቡ በልዩነት ውስጥ የሚፈልቁ መልካም ሐሳቦችን ለአገሩ ዕድገት ሙሉ ተሳትፎ በማድረግ ያለምንም ሥጋት እንዲያቀርብ ዕድል ይፈጥራል።

3.የመገናኛ ብዙኃን ተደራሽነትን ማስፋት 

በሃያ አንደኛው መቶ ክፍለ ዘመን በማናቸውም ፈርጅ ለሚደረግ እንቅስቃሴ ወቅታዊና ተዓማኒነት ያለው መረጃ ይዞ መገኘት ለስኬት የሚደረገውን ጉዞ እንደሚያቃናው እሙን ነው። በመቀጠል የምንመለከተው በኢትዮጵያ ብሮድካስቲንግ ኮርፖሬሽንና በኢፌዲሪ የውጭ ጉዳይ ሚኒስቴር ትብብር በየሁለት ሳምንቱ እየተዘጋጀ ለተመልካች የሚቀርበውን “ዲፕሎማሲያችን” የተሰኘ የቴሌቪዥን ፕሮግራም ነው።  ይህ ፕሮግራም ለኅብረተሰቡ ወቅታዊ መረጃዎችን ከማቅረብ ባለፈ አገሪቱ በዘርፉ በክፍለ አኅጉር፣ በአኅጉር ብሎም በዓለም አቀፍ ደረጃ ያለችበትን ደረጃ፣ የገጠሟትን እንዲሁም ሊገጥሟት የሚችሉ ፈተናዎችን በማስረጃ በማስደገፍ ያቀርባል። በዘርፉ የበቃ ልምድ ያካበቱ ምሁራንና የውጭ ግንኙነት ባለሙያዎች የሚሰጧቸው ምልከታዎች ሰፊው ሕዝብ ስለአገሩ የሚኖረው መረዳትን በመቅረፅ ረገድ ከፍተኛ ሚና ይጫወታል። በዚህ ወቅት በሚደረጉ ፈርጀ ብዙ የመሠረተ ልማት ዝርጋታዎች ከዕለት ዕለት የኤሌክትሪክ ኃይል ሽፋን እያገኘ ያለው የኅብረተሰብ ቁጥር እየጨመረ ሲሄድ፣ በዚህ የመገናኛ ብዙኃን መስክ የሚተላለፈው ፕሮግራም ተደራሽነት መስፋት በዘርፉ ለሚደረጉ የለውጥ እንቅስቃሴዎች እንደ በጎ ጅምር ይታያል። 

ከላይ የተጠቀሱት መልካም ጎኖች ቢኖሩም፣ ፕሮግራሙ ወጥነት ባለው ሁኔታ እንዳይተላለፍ የሚያደርጉ ክስተቶች መደራረብ፣ ኅብረተሰቡን በቀጥታ የማያሳትፍ መሆን፣ ከሁለትዮሽ መስተጋብር ይልቅ በአንድ መንገድ (One Way) የመረጃ ሰጪና ተቀባይ ተዋረድ የመፍጠሩ ዝንባሌ መጉላት፣ በተጨማሪም የአየር ሽፋኑ አነስተኛነት ፕሮግራሙ የታለመለትን ግብ እንዳይመታ ማነቆ ይሆናሉ። በእርግጥ ቀድሞ በኅብረተሰቡ ውስጥ የዲፕሎማሲ ተግባር ስስ የፖለቲካና ብሔራዊ ደኅንነት ጉዳይ ነው በሚል በዘርፉ ውስጥ ሰላሉ ባለሙያዎች ብቻ የተተወ ሥራ አድርጎ የመቁጠር ዝንባሌ ገዝፎ ይስተዋል ነበር። በዘርፉ ሰፊው ሕዝብ የራሱ ሚና እንዳለው በማሳየት ረገድ ፕሮግራሙ ረጅም ርቀት የተጓዘ ቢሆንም ቅሉ፣ መንግሥት ከካዝናው የሚያወጣውን አንጡራ ሀብት በሥራ ላይ እስካዋለ ድረስ ከላይ የተጠቀሱትን ውስንነቶች ማረቅ ቢቻል፣ የተጀመሩትን እንቅስቃሴዎች በማይናድ መሠረት ላይ ለመደልደል ከፍተኛ እገዛ ያደርጋል።

4.ባለድርሻ አካላትን የመለየት ሥራ 

በሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ዘርፍ የሚገኙ ዓበይት ልሂቃን ሀቲት መሠረት በዘርፉ አመርቂ ውጤት ለማስመዝገብ ከሚያስፈልጉ ቅድመ ሁኔታዎች መካከል የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ አባላትን መለየትና እንዳስፈላጊነቱ በቅደም ተከተል የማስቀመጡ ጉዳይ ይገኝበታል። በዚህ ዙሪያ የአገራችንን ወቅታዊ ሁኔታ ስንመለከት ጉዳዩን በባለቤትነት የሚከታተለው የውጭ ጉዳይ መሥሪያ ቤት ጅምር ሥራዎችን አከናውኗል፣ በማከናወንም ላይ ይገኛል። የዚሁ ጥረት መገለጫም በቅርቡ ወደ ግብፅና ሱዳን የተንቀሳቀሰው የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ቡድን ይሆናል። ምንም እንኳን የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ቡድኑ ከየትኛው የኅብረተሰብ ክፍል፣ የሙያ ማኅበር ወይም ዘርፍ ይመረጣል? በምን መመዘኛስ? የሚለው ግልጽ መመርያ የሌለው ቢሆንም፣ የተሳለጡ ጅምሮችን በማበረታታት በቀጣይ ሊወሰዱ የሚገቡ አቅጣጫዎችን በማስቀመጥ ረገድ መሥሪያ ቤቱ ከሌሎች ባለድርሻ አካላት ጋር በሰፊው ሊሄድበት የሚገባው ጉዳይ መሆኑ አጽንኦት ሊሰጠው ያስፈልጋል።

አሁን ባለው ነባራዊ ሁኔታ አገራችን ውስጥ መንግሥትም ሆነ ሌሎች አካላት በሁሉም አቅጣጫ ጠንክረው እንዲሠሩ የሚገፋፋ ኅብረተሰብ (Demanding Society) መፍጠር ተችሏል። የዚህ ዓይነት ኅብረተሰብ በሚገኝበት ሥፍራ፣ መንግሥት የሥልጣን መንበርን እንደ ርስት ሳይሆን ቅቡልነትን (Popular Legitimacy) ለማግኘት በሚደረጉ እንቅስቃሴዎች የኅብረተሰቡን ፖለቲካዊ፣ ማኅበራዊና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ጥያቄዎች በአግባቡ ለማሟላት የሚተጋበትን አመለካከት ይፈጥራል። ስለዚህ የኅብረተሰቡን ፈርጀ ብዙ ጥያቄዎችን ለመመለስ ንቃተ ህሊናን የማጎልበት ሥራ ሊሠራባቸው ከሚገቡ ዘርፎች መካከል የውጭ ግንኙነት ዘርፍ ካስማ ሆኖ ይገኛል። እንደማሳያ በቅርቡ ከተደረጉ የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ትሩፋቶች መካከል የኢትዮ ግብፅ ግንኙነትን እንመለከታለን።

ኢትዮጵያና ግብፅ ለረዥም ጊዜ የቆየ ታሪካዊ ግንኙነት ያላቸው አገሮች ሲሆኑ፣ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ግንኙነት የመሠረቱት እ.ኤ.አ. በ1924 ነው። የዓባይ ወንዝ ሁለቱን አገሮች የሚያስተሳስራቸውና በግንኙነታቸው ላይም በአሉታዊና በአዎንታዊ መንገድ ተፅዕኖ የሚያደርግ ታሪካዊና በእጅጉ ወሳኝ ሀብት ነው። ይህ ዕድሜ ጠገብ የሆነው የሁለቱ አገሮች ግንኙነት ቀደምቶቹም ሆኑ የዛሬዎቹ የግብፅ መንግሥታት ሁለቱን አገሮች በሚያስተሳስረው ዓባይ ወንዝ ዙሪያ በሚንፀባረቅ ለዘመናት የቆየ “የብቸኛ ባለቤትነት ስሜት” ኢትዮጵያን በጥርጣሬ ዓይን የተመለከቱበትና አልፎ ተርፎም ችግር በመፍጠር አገራችንን ለማዳከም የጣሩበት ታሪክ ነው ተብሎ ማስቀመጥ ይቻላል። ይህም የሁለቱን አገሮች ግንኙነት በአለመተማመን አጥሮ ከታሪካዊነት ባለፈ መድረስ ከሚገባው ደረጃ ላይ እንዳይደርስ አድርጎት የቆየ ቢሆንም፣ ሁለቱ አገሮች በተለያዩ መስኮች ለመተባበርና በመካከላቸው የመተማመን መንፈስ ለማጎልበት ጥረት ሲያደርጉ ቆይተዋል።

ይህንንም ተከትሎ በተለይ በኢትዮጵያ በኩል የሁለቱን አገሮች የፖለቲካዊ ግንኙነት ዳራ፣ የኢኮኖሚ ትስስር፣ የማኅበራዊና የሃይማኖታዊ ግንኙነቶች ዕይታ ለማስተካከል (Paradigm Shift) መንግሥት በከፍተኛ ሁኔታ መዋዕለ ንዋይ አፍስሷል። እንደ ምሳሌ ታላቁ የኢትዮጵያ የህዳሴ ግድብን ለመገንባት የመሠረት ድንጋይ ከተቀመጠ በኋላ የተሠራው ከፍተኛ የሕዝብ ግንኙነት ሥራ ብሎም ምክክር ኢትዮጵያ የዓባይ ወንዝን በተመለከተ ለረዥም ጊዜ ሰፍኖ የኖረውን የተዛነፈ ምልከታ ለመለወጥ ጥረት ማድረጓን መመልከት ይቻላል። በእርግጥ በሥልጣን ላይ ያለው መንግሥት በየዕለቱ እያደገ የመጣውን ኢኮኖሚና የሕዝብ ፍላጎት ማርካት የሚችል አስተማማኝ የኃይል አቅርቦት የማረጋገጥ ቁርጠኝነት ቢኖረውም፣ ሌሎች የተፋሰሱን አገሮች በማይጎዳ መንገድ ራስን የማልማት የዘመናት የኢትየጵያ ሕዝብ ጥያቄ፣ በመላው ዓለም የሚገኙ ኩሩ ኢትዮጵያውን ንቅናቄን በመፍጠር “የአገር ልማት በአገር ልጅ” የሚል መፈክር በኅብረተሰቡ ልብ ውስጥ ከትቧል፡፡ ለድህነት በአልሸነፍ ባይነት ስሜት እጅግ የላቀ ጥያቄን በመንግሥት ላይ በማጫር መንግሥት ለእንቅስቃሴው በማያዳግም ሁኔታ ምላሽ እንዲሰጥ አድርጓል፡፡ ምንም እንኳን አገራችን ከሰማንያ አምስት በመቶ በላይ የጥቁር ዓባይ ወንዝ አመንጪ ብትሆንም ቅን የሆነው የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ “እኔ ከሞትኩ ሰርዶ አይብቀል” የሚል ብሂልን ወደ ጐን በመተው፣ ለዘመናት የቆየውን በመቻቻልና በመተባበር ስሜት ለጋራ ተጠቃሚነት የሚደረጉ እንቅስቃሴዎች የሕዝባችን ልዩ መገለጫ መሆኑን አሳይቷል፡፡ ይህንን ከማሳየት ባሻገር የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ ስለዲፕሎማሲና ዓለም አቀፍ ግንኙነት መርህ ቀድሞ በሁለንተናው የሰረፀ ስለመሆኑ ለተቀረው የዓለም ማኅበረሰብ አስመስክሯል።

5.የሴቶች ተሳትፎ

ከኢትዮጵያ የማዕከላዊ ስታትስቲክስ ኤጀንሲ በተገኘ መረጃ የአገራችን ሕዝብ ብዛት በሐምሌ 2006 ዓ.ም. 87,952, 000 (ሰማንያ ሰባት ሚሊዮን ዘጠኝ መቶ ሃምሳ ሁለት ሺሕ) እንደነበር ገልጿል። ከዚህም ውስጥ አጠቃላይ የሴቶች ብዛት 43,748,000 (አርባ ሦስት ሚሊዮን ሰባት መቶ አርባ ስምንት ሺሕ) ይሸፍናል። እኚህን ግማሽ የኅብረተሰብ ክፍል በአግባቡ የማይወክል ማንኛውም እንቅስቃሴ ግቡን ሊመታ እንደማይችል ብቻ ሳይሆን፣ እንደማይታሰብም ሳይታለም የተፈታ ነው። ሴት ኅብረተሰቡን በማስተማር ቀዳሚ ነች፡፡ ሴት ኅብረተሰቡ ላይ የተጋረጡ ተግዳሮቶችን ለመጋፈጥ ምናልባትም የመጀመሪያዋ ነች፡፡ በአገሮች መካከል በሚፈጠሩ አለመግባባቶችና ግጭት የመጀመሪያውም የመጨረሻውም አሰቃቂ ድርጊቶች ከሚጋረጥባቸው የኅብረተሰብ ክፍሎች መካከል ሴቶች ቀዳሚዎች ናቸው። 

አገራችን በምታከናውነው የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ሥራ ላይ የዚህ ሁሉ ችግሮች ቀዳሚ ገፈት ቀማሽ የሆነች ሴት ልትጫወት በምትችለው ሚና ላይ ያተኮረ የተሳትፎ  ሽፋን በኅብረተሰቡ ውስጥ ያላቸውን ቁመና ሊወክል አልቻለም። ለምሳሌ ወደ ግብፅ ከተጓዘው የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ቡድን ጠቅላላ አባላት የሴቶች ተሳትፎ በአሥር በመቶ ብቻ የተገደበ ነበር። በእርግጥ የቀደሙ ጭቆናዎች፣ ባህልና ሌሎች ጎታች አመለካከቶች ሴቶች በየዘርፉ ልቀው እንዳይወጡ አድርጓቸው ሊሆን ይችላል። በዚህ ጊዜ ግን ሴቶችን በተለያዩ መስኮች ማሳተፍ የችሮታ ጉዳይ ሳይሆን የህላዌ አዝማሚያን ተላብሷል። ስለዚህ የኢፌዲሪ የውጭ ጉዳይ ሚኒስቴር በዋናነት በሚያከናውነው የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ ክንውኖች የሴቶችን ተሳትፎ በማጎልበት ረገድ ለወደፊቱ ከፍተኛ የማብቃት ሥራ እንደሚጠብቀው ከወዲሁ በመገንዘብ ዘርፈ ብዙ እገዛዎችን (የአቅም ግንባታ፣ የአመለካከትና የተደራሽነት አድማስን የማስፋት) እንቅስቃሴዎችን ለማድረግ ከወዲሁ መዘጋጀት ይጠበቅበታል።

በዓለም አቀፍ መድረክ ዜጎች አገሮቻቸውን በበጎ መልክ የሚያስተዋውቁበት (Branding) እንዲሁም በሰጥቶ መቀበል መርህ (Reciprocity) ጥቅማቸውን የሚያስጠብቁበት አጋጣሚ በመፈጠሩ፣ ስለወቅታዊና አጠቃላይ የአገሪቱ ሁኔታ መረጃዎችን ለዜጎች ማስታጠቅ የሚኖረው ፋይዳ የጎላ ነው። ለዚህም ነው አብዛኞቹ የዓለማችን አገሮች የዜጎች ዲፕሎማሲ (Citizen Diplomacy) መርህን በመከተል ዜጎቻቸው የአገራቸውን ገጽታ ገንብተው፣ የተለያዩ የቢዝነስ አማራጮችን ወደ አገር እንዲያመጡ የሚያግዟቸው። በአገር ውስጥ የሚደረጉ የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲ እንቅስቃሴዎች ሁሉን የኅብረተሰብ ክፍል ያካተተ ሆኖ በስፋት መከናወን አለበት የሚባለውም ለዚህ ነው።

ዴሞክራሲ በአገራችን እንደ ቅንጦት የሚታይበት ዘመን አክትሟል። አሁን ለሁሉም እንቅስቃሴዎች የዴሞክራሲ ጥያቄዎች መሠረታዊ ከመሆናቸው የተነሳ “ዳቦ ይቀድማል ዴሞክራሲ” የሚለውን የቆየ ክርክር ገሸሽ በማድረግ፣ ሁለቱም መሳ ለመሳ የሚሄዱበት አግባብ እየተፈጠረ ይገኛል። በኢፌዲሪ ሕገ መንግሥት አንቀጽ 12 ላይ እንደተደነገገው፣ መንግሥት የሚያከናውናቸው ሥራዎች ለሕዝብ ግልጽና ተጠያቂነትን በተከተለ መንገድ መከናወን አለባቸው የሚለውን መርህ ወደ ተግባር መቀየር የግዴታ ውዴታ ሆኗል። ኅብረተሰቡ የሚያስፈልገውን የመጫሚያ ቁጥር መንግሥታት ለብቻቸው የሚወስኑበት ዘመን አብቅቷል፡፡ በምክክር ይሆናል እንጂ። የኅብረተሰቡን ተሳትፎ ማረጋገጥና ማጎልበት፣ የሕዝብ ዲፕሎማሲን ጨምሮ በማናቸውም ዘርፍ  ከታለመለት ግብ ለመድረስ የማይተካ አስተዋጽኦ እንደሚኖረው፣ የደቡብ ምሥራቅ እስያ አገሮች ከማናቸውም በተሻለ ማሳያ ይሆናሉ።

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ከዚህ ቀደም በሪፖርተር ጋዜጣ ላይ የወጣ

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Underpinning Integration in the Horn

Without refuting the role and pertinence played by oil and gas importation in the economy, we now ponder on the export side of Ethiopian energy security because it is believed to increase the nation’s influence.

Every country wants to have a future with affordable energy as it is a pillar for all other endeavors. Yet, “how”, “from whom” and “in what bulk one should secure such needs” are part of the prime debate in this globalized world. Energy security, since the very first spark and glimmer that resulted from the friction of stones held by that fortunate caveman who discovered fire, has been the bone of contention for centuries and is no longer an issue only for politicians, environmental activists or policy makers; rather, all global citizens have a stake in the issue.

By and large, various skeptics’ stipulate that Ethiopia ought to secure an immediate hard currency by trading its renewable energy resources although they seem far more market-driven. When shall Ethiopia get the pecuniary return? Now, or in the long run? These are the subjects causing clamor. A “resource-scramble” model urges countries to seek what is best for them regardless of the consequences for others. Nevertheless, a more precise way to think about the problem is to see that each nation’s energy security is an integral part of every other nation’s security. In this overly entwined world, we should compromise benefits as long as it doesn’t shake our very existence and identity. We should not exclusively calculate the hard currency we secure now, but rather in the long-term, state-to-state conviction we inculcate.

Michael Rupert explains what is going on in a recent article about Peak oil. “For every calorie of food produced in the industrial world, ten calories of oil and gas energy are invested in the forms of fertilizer, pesticide, packaging, transportation, and running farm equipment.”

After all, we cannot escape the subject of energy security from our everyday life because we are consumers of the above-mentioned yield in one way or another. 

At the end of each month, go through newspapers or watch the broadcast media and you are likely to find an article about the monthly domestic oil price announcement from the Ministry of Trade featured prominently. This might include, but is not limited to, the long queues of vehicles we encounter at petrol stations, and, as many people will/have experienced and will remember, days they were forced to sit in a taxi waiting to refill gas, all the while their important schedule was delayed.  Energy is this close to our everyday life.

Ethiopia is reliant on imports to meet its petroleum requirements. It is both an oil and gas importer and recently started to export hydropower. Without refuting the role and pertinence played by oil and gas importation in the economy, we now ponder on the export side of Ethiopian energy security because it is believed to increase the nation’s influence.

Within our psychological advances, concerns about energy security are now at the forefront of many current debates on energy policy, profoundly influencing the way decision-makers think about a range of issues from national and economic security to international diplomacy. Global leaders had convened here in Addis principally to decide upon global financial measures. It is critical to deal with the issue as the third global Financing for Development summit and the post 2015 development , as well as in many of its side events, become the focus of the decade. Likewise, it is time for concerted global action towards a secured, sustainable and inclusive energy security for the global citizen.

As the resources that have been so crucial for survival in the world start waning in figures, countries have begun to realize that the need for renewable energy sources will be as vital as ever. And here, Ethiopia has started to generate plenty clean energy sources. In this day and age, the long-awaited moment in time has come to redeem itself to a lofty leverage it aspired for centuries. Adept diplomacy harnessed by energy security and resilience shall be the next motto that will make Ethiopia center in scope and character of regional framework.

Against all odds, it has been reported by FDRE Foreign Affairs and National Security policy document that the foreign policies of past governments were founded in part with a “siege mentality.” Instead of repeating history of appalling policy, we should learn from it and push the gear towards betterment. 

Denying Ethiopia’s huge investment in hydroelectric, geothermal and wind infrastructures amounts to naivety. But we should persevere that Ethiopia doesn’t aspire to bring about the economic return for costs it incurred on such investments in the short run, and instead the hard currency it acquired by being business minded could be set off once it advances long-term affiliation and keeps peaceful camaraderie with nations.

Let us consider our neighboring nations who could be shortlisted patrons of our energy supply. If the warring parties and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) succeed in instilling peace in South Sudan, there will be a development , which, in turn, would bring about market access and job opportunities for Ethiopians. Regarding the republic of Sudan, there is a possibility of an extra port option, which would benefit our growing economy because, given some time, it might not be accommodated by the Djibouti port alone. Kenya is also another client for our energy supply and no one can undermine their supportive role in our peace and security resolutions against vicious radical groups. Besides, contiguity of border villages and some ethnic groups further cement the need for collaboration. Finally, aside from the shared sociological and cultural ties, Djibouti is the focal entry and exit point for Ethiopian merchandise. So, any moves that the Ethiopian government takes would be scrutinized in line with the broader economic integration process that is underway. 

The mutual trust built amongst countries in resource transactions is also another prominent issue. It is apparent that they disburse for the service provided yet the bond must be beyond contractual relationship. Once we harness such ties, our transaction partners will feel that Ethiopia has a stake in their development endeavor as a power supplier. Moreover, people-to-people relationship that we build through public diplomacy engagements will buttress our stance in the hearts and minds of that country’s populace.

In order to maintain our stance in the sector, the government should engage with donors who already deem Ethiopia worthy of development assistance and who will support a plan for carbon-neutral industrialization by 2030.  Ethiopia should orchestrate countries to prop up its clean energy resources. Even in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project; the more Ethiopia was devoted on the negotiation table, the more Egypt and Sudan felt inclined to agree until they finally agreed in principle to the construction of the dam. There are also many other Nile riparian countries assenting to the Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA) on the equitable utilization of the river. Thus, we should be adamant with our bilateral and multilateral development partners so that they maintain our cause like Japan and the World Bank did in Aluto Langano Geothermal Power Plant.

To renew the ties of cooperation, and to confront its fear and face the future, Ethiopia should find the right balance between a market-driven outlook and a more forward-looking strategic approach towards bolstering equitable and reasonable collaboration frameworks. It will resurrect from the ashes like the mythological phoenix and redeem its previous supremacy in a subtler manner. On top of that, it must work towards shifting the paradigm towards the success of African integration as is aspired by Agenda 2063. Ethiopia can bolster Africa through an integrated power pool, enough that history will enlighten the rest of the world about us. We shall prove, in action, that Ethiopia’s indomitable spirit on the issues of Africa is as solid as they used to be, irrespective of governments in power.

Henceforth, in order to keep the normalcy of the region and consolidate the pivotal role of Ethiopia, we need the immensely significant support of neighboring states. Or else, once we exclusively engross our mentality on the economic return we can accrue from those countries, Ethiopia would be expected to go the extra mile to secure their alliance, which would be emphatically cumbersome. Lastly, collecting a reasonable amount for the sale of our energy supply is crucial in keeping the ties intact.

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Originally Posted on The Reporter English Version

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